Digging up the Numbers: A statistical view of MSD

Chennai Super Kings: Still in the hunt!

Two games have passed since I last published the scenarios. Though both these games don’t have a direct impact on the qualification of the Super Kings, they do decide what should happen in the next matches for us to qualify.

One match went in a way we wanted, the Sixers have won and qualified for the semis. The other went in a way no one expected. A rain hit abandoned match to no one’s good. So, how well this could go now? The point table as of now is

Teams	Mat	Won	Lost	N/R	Pts	Net RR
Syd Sixers	3	3	0	0	12	+2.131
Lions	3	2	1	0	8	+0.054
Mum Indians	2	0	1	1	2	-0.539
Yorkshire	2	0	1	1	2	-6.294
Super Kings	2	0	2	0	0	-0.484

The Super Kings are at the bottom of the table. But still with a bright chance of qualifying considering that none of the teams other than the Sixers and Lions have won a game.

The future fixtures are very important. Here is what we want.

Date	Game	Winner	Reason
Oct 20	Lions vs Yorks	Yorks	If Lions win, that will seal Group B
Oct 20	CSK vs Mumbai	CSK	This is a knock-out if Yorks win against the Lions
Oct 22	CSK vs Yorks	CSK	This one and we are through
Oct 22	Sixers vs Mumbai	Sixers	So that CSK stays in comfort zone

The games on October 20 are the most crucial. If Lions beat Yorks in the first game, then they will go through to the semi-finals eliminating all the other 3 teams. So, not just Chennai, Mumbai Indians will also hope that Lions loses the game. And for Yorks, it’s a do or die encounter. But considering the performance so far, this result is highly unlikely and will be a miracle happening.

If we get a favourable result in the first game, then the second game is knock-out. The losing team have to get their way out. So, one IPL team will be out of action tomorrow. The remaining two matches are just stories. CSK beat Yorks and goes through.

The final points table will look like this

Teams	Mat	Won	Lost	N/R	Pts	Net RR
Syd Sixers	4	4	0	0	16	??
Lions	4	2	2	0	8	??
Mum Indians	4	0	3	1	2	??
Yorkshire	4	1	1	2	6	??
Super Kings	4	2	2	0	8	??

The task is not so easy, but with the luck that we always had, this will surely bound to happen.

Whistles!

AFCAT: Air Force apologizes (finally)!

It had been a fortnight since the Air Force declared its AFCAT 02/2012 result null and void. Today (finally) they apologized to the candidates through mail.

A mail has been sent to the candidates (not sure if it was sent only to those whom they have declared as passed early) today morning (18/10/2012 11:09 AM) which contained the following message.

Though it had been more than 15 months, there was no sign of results being declared anytime soon. They keep the candidates on hold for a very long time.

Can the Chennai Super Kings still make it?

After entering the tournament as one of the title favourites, Chennai Super Kings suffered back to back losses only to find themselves limping for the spot in the semi-finals. With the two losses, Chennai are almost out of the race. But can they bounce back? Is there a way to get their journey back on track? There is still a statistical probability of Chennai Super Kings winning the CLT20 cup.

The scenario is that either one of the top two teams, Sydney Sixers or the Highveld Lions must lose both their games and Chennai Super Kings winning both their remaining games with considerable margin. Since the NRR of Sixers are way too high, Chennai would be hoping for the Lions to lose both their games, as that would give them a better NRR competition.

The points table after the Chennai vs Lions game looks like this

Teams	Mat	Won	Lost	Pts	Net RR
Syd Sixers	2	2	0	8	+3.140
Lions	2	2	0	8	+0.395
Super Kings	2	0	2	0	-0.484
Mum Indians	1	0	1	0	-0.539
Yorkshire	1	0	1	0	-6.294

Here are the remaining games and what Chennai would be best hoping for

Date	Game	Winner	Reason
Oct 18	Lions vs Sixers	Sixers	As Lions should lose both their games
Oct 18	Mumbai vs Yorks	Mumbai	Yorks have another match to win. So let them lose this one
Oct 20	Lions vs Yorks	Yorks	Lions have to lose
Oct 20	CSK vs Mumbai	CSK	Obviously!
Oct 22	CSK vs Yorks	CSK	Again, obviously!
Oct 22	Sixers vs Mumbai	Sixers	So that CSK stays in comfort zone

So, after all these games the points table will look like

Teams	Mat	Won	Lost	Pts	Net RR
Syd Sixers	4	4	0	16	??
Lions	4	2	2	8	??
Super Kings	2	2	2	8	??
Mum Indians	4	1	3	4	??
Yorkshire	4	1	3	4	??

Now, there will be a tie in points between the Lions and the Super Kings and with a better NRR (hopefully) CSK will go through.

The allowance we have here is that, even if Mumbai / Yorks win 2 games, it will still depend upon the Net run rate. So, the going should be easy. But if both Sixers and Lions win their next game, then its all over and all the three remaining teams will be eliminated.

Super Kings have faced this situation in the past and hopefully history repeats itself.

Whistlepodu forever!!

Windows 8 - Is this just a geeky stuff?

We are just days away from the birth of this new baby - Windows 8. This will create a new era in desktops as the World's premier Operating System will switch from its conventional view to favour touch inpu as a primary one. But is this just for the Geeks? Well, it's difficult to answer.

First, the UI is pretty new for a normal customer. There is no doubt that Geeks will love it. But it will be hard task for microsoft to pull in the regular customers to the Windows 8. But there they have the twist. I've pushed some of my friends who are not fond of computers to use Windows 8 and surprising they do love it. Those who used Windows 8 Release Preview hesitate to switch back to Windows 7. So, Microsoft's bigger task is to make people use the OS atleast for a few days and let them know the expereience.

For me, its not a Geeky stuff at all. But world always thinks different from you. We will know the result in a few weeks time. Here are some screenshots from Win8 RP

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