After entering the tournament as one of the title
favourites, Chennai Super Kings suffered back to back losses only to find
themselves limping for the spot in the semi-finals. With the two losses,
Chennai are almost out of the race. But can they bounce back? Is there a way to
get their journey back on track? There is still a statistical probability of
Chennai Super Kings winning the CLT20 cup.
The scenario is that either one of the top two teams, Sydney
Sixers or the Highveld Lions must lose both their games and Chennai Super Kings
winning both their remaining games with considerable margin. Since the NRR of
Sixers are way too high, Chennai would be hoping for the Lions to lose both
their games, as that would give them a better NRR competition.
The points table after the Chennai vs Lions game looks like
this
|
Teams
|
Mat
|
Won
|
Lost
|
Pts
|
Net RR
|
|
Syd Sixers
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
8
|
+3.140
|
|
Lions
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
8
|
+0.395
|
|
Super Kings
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
-0.484
|
|
Mum Indians
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
-0.539
|
|
Yorkshire
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
-6.294
|
Here are the remaining games and what Chennai would be best
hoping for
|
Date
|
Game
|
Winner
|
Reason
|
|
Oct 18
|
Lions vs Sixers
|
Sixers
|
As Lions should lose both their games
|
|
Oct 18
|
Mumbai vs Yorks
|
Mumbai
|
Yorks have another match to win. So let them lose this one
|
|
Oct 20
|
Lions vs Yorks
|
Yorks
|
Lions have to lose
|
|
Oct 20
|
CSK vs Mumbai
|
CSK
|
Obviously!
|
|
Oct 22
|
CSK vs Yorks
|
CSK
|
Again, obviously!
|
|
Oct 22
|
Sixers vs Mumbai
|
Sixers
|
So that CSK stays in comfort zone
|
So, after all these games the points table will look like
|
Teams
|
Mat
|
Won
|
Lost
|
Pts
|
Net RR
|
|
Syd Sixers
|
4
|
4
|
0
|
16
|
??
|
|
Lions
|
4
|
2
|
2
|
8
|
??
|
|
Super Kings
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
8
|
??
|
|
Mum Indians
|
4
|
1
|
3
|
4
|
??
|
|
Yorkshire
|
4
|
1
|
3
|
4
|
??
|
Now, there will be a tie in points between the Lions and the
Super Kings and with a better NRR (hopefully) CSK will go through.
The allowance we have here is that, even if Mumbai / Yorks
win 2 games, it will still depend upon the Net run rate. So, the going should
be easy. But if both Sixers and Lions win their next game, then its all over
and all the three remaining teams will be eliminated.
Super Kings have faced this situation in the past and
hopefully history repeats itself.
Whistlepodu forever!!
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